Reliability, Maintenance and Identity Theft

Time to Failure Estimation

The concept of TTFE is to eliminate the misnomer ‘predictive’ maintenance. The maintenance inspections and tasks associated with PdM are designed to detect an impending problem. The issue, however, comes when a decision maker asks ‘how long will it last.’

To be perfectly blunt, there is no way of actually ‘predicting’ or giving a perfectly accurate statement. The result is a stammering response of maybe now, maybe later, or some variation. What the decision maker is really looking for is some measurement of risk that the equipment will operate for some amount of time.

The method is direct and will provide straight forward answers.

The six page paper on Time to Failure Estimation Techniques is available now from http://www.motordiagnostics.com/presentations.htm.

Fear Mongering Jerks! - Editorial

Fear Mongering JERKS! (My actual response would be printed more like ‘*#%&$#@*&’ – but then again I speak Navy and this is polite company)

I tell you, the slimiest, weakest, sales techniques use fear mongering to get you to make a hasty decision to avoid discomfort. In every marketing and sales training course and literature, the use of fear is meant for a quick sale where there is little intent on delivering very well afterwards.

Yet, here we go again, lots and lots of ‘professionals’ (and I use that term as loosely as a fly entering the Grand Canyon) in the RME&E industry are using fear, especially fear of job loss, etc. to get you to jump to their services or follow their, often poor, advice. It just makes my blood boil!

A true professional would be helping you identify your pain – what is causing that itch or cramp that causes you discomfort – root it out and then resolve the issue. That is how I was taught to provide sales or services and it is something I strongly believe in to this day. But, I suppose, you have to actually know what you are talking about or how to provide solutions, instead of straight self-interest, to accomplish real service to your clients.

Yes, I am angry.

I am seeing, first hand, the turnaround in the economy. It started about a month ago. I think mainly because people are sick and tired of all the depressing news and views and information about how the world is going to end. Yes, we are feeling the pain, just as everyone else, but we have been using this time constructively – developing new services and providing information to the industry.

But, then again, there was a polling question I was sent on LinkedIn last night that just blew my mind. The question didn’t, the answers did: [paraphrased] Do you have to be an expert in an area to consult in that area? Can you believe that the general answers were, literally, that you did not have to know anything about the area that you are consulting to?!? What kind of [expletive] is that? My response, of course, was not very nice.

I have followed up in plants that have had ‘RCM’ services performed. I use the RCM process in the development of programs unique to each client that can be sustained when we are long gone – and I carry both NAVSEA and NAVAIR certifications, which means that I have a level of expertise. However, some of these folks read a book and then think they are RCM experts, make up some marketing name to add to RCM, and then go in and generate a huge bill, a huge mess, and a strong distaste for one of the more important tools of our industry. I stopped using the term ‘RCM’ because the results of these HACKS is the fear of a program and the perceived time involved.

Of course, if your potential client is not educated in such programs, then it is easy to mislead them that it is a HUGE undertaking that is extremely costly. Yep, you guessed it – makes them lots of money, they put a bunch of people in your plant, and you end up with a trailer full of paper or stacks of CD ROMS with completely useless information. What if I told you that I was able to reduce pier-side time of a fleet of marine vessels from 10 days to 3 days in two days of analysis?

Remember – always hire a busy man if you want to get things done quickly and for the RIGHT price, not someone who needs to put a bunch of people in your facility to take over your jobs. Or, worse: to make you look really bad.

Now, I keep hearing how you and I are supposed to do certain things – basically duck and hide – while this crisis is going on.

I have a little secret for you. The definition of ‘crisis’ is literally – change! So, the advice from these self-proclaimed experts is that because ‘the sky is falling,’ we should not participate in change but should instead be blown by the wind once again.

Let me repeat that: the advice from many of the ‘professionals’ in our industry right now is to NOT get involved in the changes that are occurring and to find ways not to rock the boat. Otherwise you might get stomped – yep, fear. Now why on earth would someone want to get us not to be involved in change?

A lot of people in our industry do not like me right now. The reason is that I am not towing the line, screaming out the same slogans, generating fear, or any of that other stuff, or echoing what they are saying – I am doing the exact opposite. The result is that some in the industry have been trying to isolate us.

Sorry, folks, I like to think that my messages are more along the lines of HOPE. That and pointing out the rotten areas that need to be ripped out. I suppose there are those who thrive on the negative speak. Personally, I would rather have positive thinkers around me. That is how you get out of the box!!

So, back to the question: why on earth would anyone want you to duck and hide during change? The answer is simple: because then you will need them to help dig you out of your hole afterwards. They NEED you to NEED them, it’s that simple.

While things are urgent and there is fear in the air, people can make hasty decisions that they either regret later or have to suffer with the consequences later. That’s when the people that pushed the hasty decisions show up and offer solutions that are already preset because they knew what was going to happen.

Here’s a good one for you: whatever you do, don’t change your job. Huh? Why not? Well, the reason is simple, and consider who is making that recommendation. What I have seen lately, and even in profitable companies, is that they know people are afraid to lose their jobs and that there is a ‘tight market’ and unemployment is up. Why not, we are hearing the message constantly day and night. It is a great way to keep people down. Then, of course, those same people are recommending to the companies that they cut bonuses, freeze wages, cut wages, and give promotions without increases, so on and so on.

Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of people who are looking for work in our industry, right now. Plus we have turned on our own an awful lot recently and the results are exactly what I predicted (if you save your newsletters, take a look at last year’s messages): the workforce is suffering. Yep, we are heading back to the conditions that existed in the early 1900s. In the meantime, this is not time for fear, but to help our neighbors and to make a difference.

MAKE A DIFFERENCE – be part of change, get things going, do something constructive.

We are doing well and could use more work, ourselves. However, instead of moaning about it, here is what we are doing:

1. Fully funded a Project Lead the Way racing electric vehicle for a high school – the only company to fully fund/sponsor such as project to encourage young students to enter engineering or the trades. We have been talking to and working with other individuals in the community who do such volunteer work, and it is my intention to start promoting what they are doing!!
2. Initiated a scholarship for engineering/trades students. Yeah, lots of people talk about encouraging young people to get involved, but what do they actually do about it? We are limited to one school this year, to see how it goes, then will expand next year.
3. We are extremely excited that we have won the two book awards for both 2008 published books. What are we going to do with our 15 minutes of fame? Oh, it’s going to be good, it’s going to be big, it’s going to be public, and it’s going to promote our industry and show the world what being an R&M professional is all about. Yes, we will be looking for help, support, etc. as soon as we make the announcement and we will welcome all support. Stay tuned!
4. We are continuing to re-invest a significant portion of our profit and time into the industry.
5. While I am a paid IEEE contractor for the IEEE DEIS Web, there is still a lot of volunteering to do in order to encourage engineering and the link between industry, trades, and the engineering community.
6. We continue to put out this type of material, information, and investigations in our industry. The result? Well, not everyone likes it – take a look at how many talks I have been invited to perform lately. Want to hear me speak on these subjects? Contact your organizations and demand it! There are several who have and the results have been quite exciting.

Folks, I have fun with my job, enjoy what I do, I am EXTREMELY excited about our industry – it’s not just a job, it is a passion! Sometimes that comes off to some people incorrectly – I am all about the RME&E industry, plain and simple. I also like to give back to the community – always have, always will – and try to surround myself with like-thinkers. Unfortunately, this appears to be rare.

Take for instance a call that I had yesterday. I offered to help someone new to a position. I described that I would introduce them to so and so and this organization and so on. The immediate response was to ask me how much it would cost them. Sorry, folks, this is a networking thing, so far as I am concerned, so I said ‘nothing.’ The caller was completely caught off guard. Well, this person in particular had been providing me with support on projects for years without asking anything – what kind of jerk would I be to actually charge them for providing in-kind? Yet, as we talked, I found out that is exactly what has been happening!

When I promote a product or service, especially those outside of SUCCESS by DESIGN, I have not taken finder’s fees nor do I carry those products. The reason? Our clients bring us on board to provide solutions – if we come in with pre-made solutions to fit our offerings, then we are not necessarily providing the best solution for our client. Besides, how can I accept money from an organization to bring them into my client who is already paying me for a solution? That would be an extremely bad ethical judgment. Yet, that is how our industry seems to be operating!!

Don’t get me wrong, I have ended up doing projects for the companies that I have brought in – mostly because there was a problem that needed to be solved in their organization. Simply, they become a client, but only after I have cleared any such work with any clients I have recommended. I would rather walk away from a project than have my ethical position challenged.

Yeah, doesn’t sound like I could possibly make much of a profit to re-invest back into the industry…. Well, that is the perception. But it is wrong! The reputation that we have worked hard to develop stands heads and shoulders above the rest.

So, my advice in all of this:

1. If some company is trying to sell you based on fear – run away! Heck, call us. We will take care of you with solutions, not fear. If the project is outside of our scope, we will pass you directly on to someone in our network who is qualified and that you can work directly with. We only promote those companies and services that we believe in.
2. Experience is a necessity in consulting work. We have had a lot of things said about how we are able to do so many things – the same thing said about the company Virgin. Yet, we keep winning awards in all of the areas we are involved in. Not awards that are set up for us to give to us, mind you (I hate those meetings where someone says – and I give this award to my boss – and act all surprised).
3. Get up on that Whack-a-Mole table and dare them to hit you. We are in a state of CHANGE and the message is HOPE. Get involved in the change and make a difference for you, your company, your co-workers and your family.
4. Watch out for companies that offer you ‘off the shelf’ solutions that they make money on. I am a big guy and I had a doctor pushing hard for me to get a gastric bypass. He kept using the term ‘morbidly obese’ and all kinds of nasty things, even though all my test results said I had the blood work and circulatory system of a 22 year old athlete (I blame it on years of drug-free power lifting). I finally looked into it and found that he owned a 49% share of the service that would have done the work. Definitely NOT in my interest.

Above all, pull together with your family, community, and the industry. There are great things that await us!

Howard's First Video Blog

Hey, not the first to do this. But still plan on blazing a few trails. About 11 minutes.

Comment on the January 2008 Edition of MDMH News!

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